Monday, July 6, 2009

07/06/09 Market Recap

Frustrating day for me and anyone else who is a bear, we saw a break on the 888 level I talk about on the weekend only to turn around and move up all day with the Dow and S&P ending in the green. I am still tilted bearish on the market but I added some new long positions to hedge myself in case we do see a move back up which would make sense as we are still stuck in a range market.

S&P 500 showed sign of life today as it rallied up before breaking our previous low of 888, this was not a big surprise as 888 has acted as support in the past, is the 200 dma, 23.6% fibonacci, and the bottom of our channel. We are still in a range market and we should expect a move back up. But we are seeing lower lows and lower highs and we have been trading in a channel down since our june highs. My line in the sand will be a break of the channel we are in, if this happens this move will be seen a giant bull flag which would propel us into new highs.

Nasdaq also found support at the 1435 area which is the top of our may trading range, 1415 needs to broken to see selling enter the market.


New positions:
(Longs)
- CAL, Broke out of bullish wedge
- JOYG, bounced off previous support at 32.50 as well as 50 dma
- SYMX, seeing if 1.00 level will hold or not, tight stop.
- UIS, moved back down to 1.64 wich was a previous breakout level, volume confirmation.
- ESLR, trenline has been in place since march bottom

(Shorts)
- MA, at top of current channel down, 50 dma acting as resistance, target will be 200 dma
- COST, looking for weakness to continue but a move above 46 will get me out
- NLY, speculative positions looking for multiple top. Tight stop.

Short positions I took profit on:
- USO, at 50 dma, will re-enter on a move back up
- IHS as it seems to have found support at trendline and 50 dma,
- UNP, trendline and 50 dma
- FOSL, bounced off support at 22

Long positions stopped out of:
KWK, broke below support and 200 dma
CEDC, broke below support at 25

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