Sunday, July 26, 2009

Weekend Review (07/20-24/09)

The stock market rose slightly on Friday, extending a two-week streak that has added 11% to the stock market's major indices. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about a 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE, where volume was very light.

S&P has broken a it's long term trendline and as long as we continue to see higher highs and higher lows as well as above the 50/100/200 ma. Friday's low of 965 will be a key level to hold for the bulls. If we do see move down I will be using it as a buying opportunity, we have support levels at 950 and 930 level.

Nasdaq, which has been leading the market, is coming up to resistance at 50% retracement at 1530 as well as previous price support and a long term trendline. This doesn't mean to go short but I will take back my long exposure and watch how the market acts around that level and if there is signs of weekness and we see pattern of LH and LL then I will short the market.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Weekend Review (07/13-17/09)

S&P looking bullish as we are trading above levels of support around 930 and above the main ma's but for a confirmed uptrend we need to see the 10 above the 20 above 30 and so forth. We are also approaching resistance levels in the 950 area and I'm expecting a move back down to the decending trendline of the channel we broke out of or a 50% retracement to 906. Unless we break our most recent lows of 868 I will be adding long postions on a any retracements.

If we do make a move down to the trendline or 50% reracement and make a move back up we would be forming and inverse h/s pattern. Way too early to trade it but just something to looking out for.

Nasdaq looking much more bullish as it broken into new highs and extended it's gains trading well above its ma's. A move down to the trendline it broke out of I will use as a buying opportunity or a 50% retracement down to 1460.

Looking at the larger picture we can see that there is very little stading in the way of this market making a move higher.

Portfolio update

Positions Added:
- WIT, broke into new highs, major MA pointing up
- UNG, broke out after creating base and made a move above resistace at 13
- AES, consistent pattern of HH and HL

FFIV, up to major resistance in the 36 area, long term h/s pattern

Thursday, July 16, 2009

07/16/09 Market Recap

The stock market continued its rally today, after surging yesterday as a result of a strong forecast from Intel. The Dow rose 95.61, or 1.11%, to 8,711.82. The Nasdaq gained 22.13, or 0.9%, to 1,885.03, while the S&P 500 added 8.06, or 0.86%, to 940.74. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about a 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE, where volume was a bit lighter than it was yesterday.

Portfolio update

Stopped out of:

Long CAL, failed attempt to get above 50 dma
Short WDC, broke above 61.8% fib and resistance
Short FISV, 47.25 level failed to act as resistance, will revisit it makes a move below that area

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Portfolio update

I didn't take advantage of the huge move up today, but I also wasn't caught on the short side and ended the day barley up. For now my new strategy is to concentrate on less positions that represent a bigger portion of my portfolio, 10% for equity, 2% for options, and 1% for futures.

New positions added:
Short FISV, resistance at 47.25
Short BMS, trendline resistance
Short WDC, 61.8% retracement as well as previous resistance

Stopped out of:
Short MVL, broke into new highs
Short IDC
Short NLY, broke into new highs

Took profit on:
NSM, failed to close above 50 dma
BNHNA, approaching resistance in the 7.60 area, will re-enter if it break above 7.75

07/15/09 Market Recap

The stock market surged for the second time in three days, Advancing issues easily outnumbered decliners by more than a 7-to-1 ratio on the NYSE, where volume was much heavier than it was yesterday (a very good sign for the bulls). Strong earnings and an upbeat forecast from Intel (INTC), combined with a more favorable take on the economy from the Federal Reserve, pulled investors back into the stock market in a big way.

S&P move above 930 has broken the pattern of lower highs and the previous h&s formation is no longer valid. We broke out of huge channel down that acted as a bull flag, and for the first time in over a month we closed above 930. Right now my stance on the market is bullish as we have broken out of a bullish flag, seeing HH's and HL's, and trading above all major MA's. But i'm only partially exposed and will wait for a pull back to add some long positions.

Nasdaq is looking bullish as well as we broke the pattern of lower highs. Nasdaq is currently in a range of 1400-1515 for the last 8 weeks, for the bullish scenario to continue we need to see new highs made. But unlike the S&P we are at resistance as we have approached a long term trendline.

We'll probably see a pull back on the indexes but I will be using that as a buying oppurtunity, the bulls are in full control on the market right now.

Monday, July 6, 2009

07/06/09 Market Recap

Frustrating day for me and anyone else who is a bear, we saw a break on the 888 level I talk about on the weekend only to turn around and move up all day with the Dow and S&P ending in the green. I am still tilted bearish on the market but I added some new long positions to hedge myself in case we do see a move back up which would make sense as we are still stuck in a range market.

S&P 500 showed sign of life today as it rallied up before breaking our previous low of 888, this was not a big surprise as 888 has acted as support in the past, is the 200 dma, 23.6% fibonacci, and the bottom of our channel. We are still in a range market and we should expect a move back up. But we are seeing lower lows and lower highs and we have been trading in a channel down since our june highs. My line in the sand will be a break of the channel we are in, if this happens this move will be seen a giant bull flag which would propel us into new highs.

Nasdaq also found support at the 1435 area which is the top of our may trading range, 1415 needs to broken to see selling enter the market.

New positions:
- CAL, Broke out of bullish wedge
- JOYG, bounced off previous support at 32.50 as well as 50 dma
- SYMX, seeing if 1.00 level will hold or not, tight stop.
- UIS, moved back down to 1.64 wich was a previous breakout level, volume confirmation.
- ESLR, trenline has been in place since march bottom

- MA, at top of current channel down, 50 dma acting as resistance, target will be 200 dma
- COST, looking for weakness to continue but a move above 46 will get me out
- NLY, speculative positions looking for multiple top. Tight stop.

Short positions I took profit on:
- USO, at 50 dma, will re-enter on a move back up
- IHS as it seems to have found support at trendline and 50 dma,
- UNP, trendline and 50 dma
- FOSL, bounced off support at 22

Long positions stopped out of:
KWK, broke below support and 200 dma
CEDC, broke below support at 25

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Short Candidates

TRE, h&s with-in h&s:

MVL, Multiple Top:

ADS, at re-test of trendline:

COST, <45:

Long Candidates

I will be cautious with these positions as I am bearish on the market.

CRGN, >1.46 with volume confirmation:

CEDC, looking for previous support to hold:

KWK, looking for a bounce from previous support levels and 200 dma:

Saturday, July 4, 2009

Weekend Review (06/29-07/02)

A weak report on job losses in June sent stocks sharply lower Thursday. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about a 5-to-1 ratio on the NYSE, where volume was extremely light ahead of the holiday weekend.

S&P broke out of the small up-channel it was in and we seem to be back in a down channel on our way to the key 880 level, the inverse h&s failed to breakout and we are seeing more evidence for a break of 880. We are still in a range bound market (930-880) and there is no reason to trade away from it until we get a close outside of the range. There are some potential support levels coming up, the first one is the 200 dma which is currently at 888 which coincides exactly with the first fibonacci level(23.6%) which we bounced off in last weeks sell off. We should see a bounce here as the bulls will do everything they can to keep it from breaking, but if we do get a break of 880 we will see some significant selling come in as there will a lot of stops just under that level. I am cautiosly bearish at the moment looking to see if we hold or break support levels.

Nasdaq is looking bearish as it broke a previous trendline it has been trading in since April, but we are approaching support levels at 1435(previous range highs), 1415 previous lows we bounced up from last week and 1400(23.6% fibonacci level). I remain bearish but lots of opportunities to see some buying come in. On a smaller time frame we can see support at current levels in the 1445 area and if we do get an upmove from here we could see an inverse h&s develope.