Saturday, June 13, 2009

Weekend Wrap Up 06/(08-12)/09

The stock market barely moved this week as the Dow rose 28.34, or 0.3%, to 8,799.26. The Nasdaq fell 3.57, or 0.2%, to 1,858.80, while the S&P 500 gained 1.32, or 0.1%, to 946.21. (All three of the major indices are now positive for the year.) The continuing crop of better-than-expected economic news has lost its ability to incite the kinds of big gains the market was enjoying back in the early Spring.

The S&P is still trading in the 950-925 range and a lot of bears are seeing Thursday's spike up as a blow off top/bull trap, this may very well be so if we are not able to close above 950 soon. We are still seeing higher lows developing as well as trading in our channel so I remain (cautiously)bullish, but I am much more hedged now. It seems as if the market is loosing steam and if we do get a meaningful break/close of 930-925 on high volume then I will fully commit to the bearish scenario.

For the first time the Nasdaq is lagging behind the S&P, on friday we saw a new low get made as we broke the previous trendline but we rallied back closing above the trendline and the 1485 (38.2% fibonacci) level. If we see a continuation of this pattern and break 1470 then I will commit to short side, if we do see weakness this market could easily reach the next support level at 1435.

Lottery long, XRM:

Long candidate, SINA:

Short candidate, SUN:

Short candidate, MCRS:

Long candidate, ANEN:

Short candidate, TNH:

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