Sunday, June 28, 2009

Short Candidates

Short, EEM: (h&s pattern)

Short, AFL:

Short, ISRG:

Long candidates

Long GLD: (inverse h&s)

Long, TBT: (various levels of support)

Long CEDC:

Long KMX: (inverse h&s)

Long FSLR: (gap close)

Lottery long, RVSN: (basing out)

Long, NFLX:

Friday, June 26, 2009

Weekend Recap 06/22-26/09

S&P is stuck in a range bound market, and until we get a break/close outside of our current range (930-880) I won't lean fully bullish or bearish. Right now I am moderately bullish as we have clearly broken the down trend we had been in as we bounced off the 200 dma

S&P is stuck in a range bound market, and until we get a break/close outside of our current range (930-880) I won't lean fully bullish or bearish. The surge higher on thursday also came on heavy volume, and we are also starting to see some higher highs and higher lows emerge. One thing to look for is whether we reject the 930 level or not, if we break above it will confirm my bullish position, but if we start to move back down we will see a head and shoulders formation.

The Nasdaq looks bullish as we broke out of the wedge that we were trading in, but we are coming up to potential levels of resistance in the 38.2% fib retracement at 1485 as well as a trendline in the 1500 region. But for now we are seeing some higher highs and higher lows, if we do make it up to the trendline I will be looking to go short as it would also be forming a double top.


Monday, June 22, 2009

06/22/09 Market Recap

The stock market tumbled today, after the World Bank estimated that the global economy will shrink 2.9% in 2009. It previously predicted a 1.7% contraction. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than a 6-to-1 ratio on the NYSE, where volume was still moderate.

Technically today was a great day for the bears, the S&P broke into new lows continuing the lower high and lower low pattern we also closed below the 50 and 200 dma. I have been bearish for the past week and will remain so until I see reason not to, although I took some profit off the table today. We are approaching a couple of key levels in the S&P, one is the 880 region which we bounced off last time the other is the 23.6% fib retracement from the rally up since March. But if we do successfully break/close below those levels 800 will be the next target.

Nasdaq also looks weak as it closed the gap from last month and closed in last months trading range, here we also see lower lows and lower higs. If we see more weakness I could see a move down to the bottom of last months range around 1360.

It's natural to expect a bounce here and with FOMC coming up there will be plenty of manipulation, I will be selling the bounces until we start to see some higher highs and higher lows in conjunction with closes above important support levels.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

06/17/09 Market Recap

The stock market finished mixed today, after a cautious forecast from FedEx (FDX) and the downgrading of 18 banks by Standard & Poor's. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about a 5-to-4 ratio on the NYSE, where volume was relatively light.

S&P is looking very bearish, we are seeing a series of lower highs and lower lows, we are in last months 930-880 range and have clearly broken the channel we were in for the last 2 months. With that being said we could get a bounce to the up side where we would meet resistance at the 925/930 area but the trend remains down. S&P also bounced off its 200 dma average, the bears will be looking for a close below this level, currently at 906.

Nasdaq is looking mildly bearish, as we attempted to make a higher high, but the trend remains down. Looking for a gap fill down to 1435 which would be the top of last months range. The bears need a close below that level.

Monday, June 15, 2009

06/15/09 - Short/Long Setups

Short candidate, FFIV: (h&s set up)
















Short candidate, MVL (triple top)
















Short candidate, LEAP (showing weakness on high volume)
















Long candidate, PSS: (range bound)

06/15/09 Market Recap

Strong dollar pushed commodities prices sharply lower, declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than a 5-to-1 ratio on the NYSE, where volume was light. All sectors were down today representing broad particiption, technology was the one sector that held up relatively well down only -0.54%.

S&P finally broke out of the channel we have been trading in for the last 60 days, closed in last months range and we are seeing a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. All this adds up to a bearish view of the market, which was non-existed before today's big drop. To maintain this bearish view it is important not to make a move up and close back into the channel. 930 should provide resistance while the next level of support is at 914/880. I have moved over to the bearish side and will remain bearish as long as the above mentioned patterns continue.

Nasdaq is also looking bearish as we broke into new lows below our previous trendline and the 1485 38.2% fibonacci level. Next level of support is at 1435, the bears need to see a break/close of this level which would bring us back into last months range.

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Weekend Wrap Up 06/(08-12)/09

The stock market barely moved this week as the Dow rose 28.34, or 0.3%, to 8,799.26. The Nasdaq fell 3.57, or 0.2%, to 1,858.80, while the S&P 500 gained 1.32, or 0.1%, to 946.21. (All three of the major indices are now positive for the year.) The continuing crop of better-than-expected economic news has lost its ability to incite the kinds of big gains the market was enjoying back in the early Spring.

The S&P is still trading in the 950-925 range and a lot of bears are seeing Thursday's spike up as a blow off top/bull trap, this may very well be so if we are not able to close above 950 soon. We are still seeing higher lows developing as well as trading in our channel so I remain (cautiously)bullish, but I am much more hedged now. It seems as if the market is loosing steam and if we do get a meaningful break/close of 930-925 on high volume then I will fully commit to the bearish scenario.

For the first time the Nasdaq is lagging behind the S&P, on friday we saw a new low get made as we broke the previous trendline but we rallied back closing above the trendline and the 1485 (38.2% fibonacci) level. If we see a continuation of this pattern and break 1470 then I will commit to short side, if we do see weakness this market could easily reach the next support level at 1435.

Lottery long, XRM:
















Long candidate, SINA:
















Short candidate, SUN:
















Short candidate, MCRS:
















Long candidate, ANEN:
















Short candidate, TNH:

Thursday, June 11, 2009

06/11/09 Market Recap

The stock market finished modestly higher today, as investors welcomed a drop in jobless claims, growth in retail sales and better-than-expected demand at a government debt auction. But traders remained concerned by how far the market has come in its three-month rally. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about a 3-to-2 ratio on the NYSE.

We got the breakout we were looking for in the S&P above 950, but with the sell off to end the day we came back down and closed back in our 925-950 range. I remain bullish since we are seeing higher highs and higher lows, I won't turn bearish until we see new lows get made with a close below 930(back into last months range). We are also still above the 20/50/200 dma, the bulls need a close above 950.
Bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows remains in Nasdaq, as long as we see this pattern there is no reason to go short and try to pick the top. If we do get a move down I will be looking for support at the trendline as well as the 1485 (38.2% fib retracement) level.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

06/10/09 Market Recap

The stock market fell moderately today, after the government sold $19 billion in 10-year Treasury notes in a relatively weak auction. There were plenty of bidders, but the government had to lure them with a higher yield than the market anticipated. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about a 3-to-2 ratio on the NYSE, where volume was a bit heavier than it was yesterday, but still relatively light.

Once again not much has changed, the S&P bounced off the bottom trend line of the current triangle we are trading in and failed to make a new low and did not close in last months range. In addition we are still above the 20/50/200 dma. We continued to see the pattern of lower highs and higher lows, the longer this goes on the bigger the breakout will be. I remain bullish until we see new lows made and a close in last months close.

Nasdas remains fully bullish as we continue to see higher highs and higher lows as well as a close above 1485(38.2 fibonacci level). I will turn bearish once this pattern changes and we get a close below 1485 . No need to try and pick the top.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

06/09/09 Market Recap

The stock market ended a quiet day slightly higher today, as investors pumped money into commodity and technology stocks, encouraged by higher prices for oil and other commodities, as well as an upbeat forecast from Texas Instruments. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about a 3-to-2 ratio on the NYSE, where volume was still moderately light.

Again not much has changed as the market barely moved today, the S&P is still stuck in its 925-950 range, in an upchannel, and above 20/50/200 dma. We are seeing some higher lows and lower highs that will eventually get a pop one way or another. Last month we saw the same traingle formation which ended with a massive 40 handle up move in the S&P. For me to start to turn bearish we will have to see a lower low and a close below 930, while the bulls need a close above 950. If the current pattern follows we should see a move down tomorrow to the 930 level.

Nasdaq looking much more bullish as we proceeded to make new highs today above the 1485 fibonacci level(38.2%) and we are also seeing a series of higher highs and higher lows. I remain fully bullish.

Monday, June 8, 2009

06/08/09 Market Recap

The stock market reversed steep losses in the final hour of trading to end little changed today.Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 3-to-2 ratio on the NYSE, where volume was even lighter than it was on Friday.

Not much has changed and I remain bullish until the market proves me otherwise, the S&P rejected an attempt to fall back into last months range and also failed to make a lower low. We are still above key support levels, and right now it seems we are basing in the 950-925 range for another move up. For me to turn bearish I first have to see a close in last months range, along with a break of the current channel we are in and formation of lower lows and lower highs.

Nasdaq also failed to make a lower low and close above 1485 38.2% fibonacci level, I remain bullish until we see a close back into last months range, below 1435.

Saturday, June 6, 2009

06/01-05/09 Weekend Review

The stock market ended a volatile day Friday little changed, after the government reported a spike in the unemployment rate to 9.4% in May, the highest level in more than 25 years, even as the pace of layoffs eased more than expected.

I'm still maintaining my bullish stance as the S&P is trading above key support levels, making higher highs and higher lows, trading above 20/50/200 dma, and trading in our channel. Once these factors start to change then I will become bearish, but until that happens there is no reason to try to pick the top. The bears needs to see a close below 930 while the bulls need one above 950. 950 in particular should be watched closely because if we do get a move down from here it can be seen as a major double top, but a break above and I don't see much resistance until 1000.

Nasdaq remains quite bullish trading above the 1385 fibonacci level and continuing to make new highs.

Long candidate, ADS, h&s:
















On the brink, FXY:
















Current long, PWAV:
















Current long, GNA, breakout above support:
















Long candidate, ARO, cup and handle:
















Current short, SLV:
















Short candidate, TRA: