Thursday, May 14, 2009

05/14/09 Market Recap

More of a nothing day, the market was up a little bit all day but this is what the bears needed. All the sectors were up with financials being up the most the at +3.42% and energy lagging behind up only +0.29%. I was expecting the market to bounce a little bit today as we sold off hard on wednesday and we were also at the bottom of a down channel. The SPX looks poised for a move down, a key level which needs to break is 880 which was previous support, this is represented by a 23% retracement level as well a support from a fib fan drawn from 1932. So a break(and close) below that level will be very bearish, it would also push the SPX below its 20 dma. But if we get a big push up tomorrow with participation from all the sectors then I would have tochange my stance.

Both the ES and NQ bounced up for the bottom of their respective channels, looking for a move back to the down side as both are at resistnace levles and we are consistantly seeing lower lows and lower highs. Specifically I would expect the nasdaq to take a bigger hit since it has had a much bigger run up in the last couple of months.

Today my portfolio was pretty much even, I was expecting a bounce so in the morning I loaded up on some longs and a big position in BGU to hedge my shorts. At the end day I sold some of my longs and added a few shorts. Definitely tilted much more towards the bear side at the moment, I will stay a bear unless we see a break and close above 905 in the ES tomorrow.

Short idea, ALK, h&s with in h&s:

Current long, CSCX:

Current short, DRQ:

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