Sunday, April 26, 2009

Weekend Wrap Up (04/24-04/24)

Before I say anything I have to thank SOHU and PLCE for saving my ass this week, I got stopped out of several shorts this week but these two longs more than made up for it. I took off 25% of my position in both of these. The week started great for the bears (me included) but as it ended the NQ had made new(current) highs and the ES got with in 3 handles of its previous highs. I got stopped out of MET, JPM (because they both made new current highs) and took profit on my GENZ short which seems to be making a double bottom.

My portfolio is equally weighted to each side and once I get a better feeling for where this market is going I'll pick a direction. But I think we will see a correction soon as I see a topping process in the markets with less stocks making new 20 days highs as the market is making new highs. The ES broke up out of the triangle I posted on thursday and back into the wedge, we seem to be stuck in an upward channel. Breaking 871 will be good for the bulls and a break of 822 for the bear case. The ES is still coming up to that major resistance point of 880 (23% retracement and fib fan). I'll try out some shorting opportunities if we get to that level.

Missed opportunity: TRLG, 10 days ago I said it would be a good short unless in breaks that 14.50 resistance. Well it broke and it hasn't looked back.

Example of a good breakout stock using volume as a buy signal, FIG:

I have been seeing this pattern a lot recently, a stock shoots up on high volume then there is a period of consolidation on low volume(buy signal), which then shoots up again on high volume. You can look at FEED for this same pattern.

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