Thursday, September 10, 2009

SD - long and strong

SD broke out today ($13.20 trigger) on high volume, MA's confirming the trend.
Lots of volume accumulation by price.

Monday, August 31, 2009

Ideal day trade

An alarm triggered for HLCS today and I entered on the first volume pull back and it has been showing great pattern of a break into new highs with volume pullbacks that provide great entry points.

(entry points)

(larger picture price trigger)

Sunday, August 2, 2009

Weekend Review (07/27-31/09)

The stock market closed slightly higher on Friday, after the government said the economy contracted at a slower pace than expected in the April-June quarter. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about a 3-to-2 ratio on the NYSE, where volume was lighter than it was on Thursday.

S&P resumed its run higher and I remain bullish but we have come to the top of our broadening formation and we are seeing some bearish candles at our highs in the form of shooting star patterns. This indicates price rejection of the highs. Thus I am expecting a move down to support levels below at 970 or more likely 950 area which is also a 38.2% fib level but I will be using that as an opportunity to load up on longs. Also, the 200 dma has finally found support and is starting to turn upwards (the direction of the 200 dma determines the long term outlook).

Nasdaq has also reached the trendline of its broadening formation among other levels of resistance which include long term trendlines and most importantly its 50% retracement from 2007 highs to the november lows. This is a lot of resistance and we should see some consolidation perhaps down to the 1515 level which would be a 50% retracement of the most recent move up as well as previous highs. Trend remains bullish as the 50 and 200 dma have turned and are now pointing up but I am expecting a decent sized pull back, which is too be expected after such a big run up. The 50 dma can also be an area that it may find support.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Weekend Review (07/20-24/09)

The stock market rose slightly on Friday, extending a two-week streak that has added 11% to the stock market's major indices. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about a 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE, where volume was very light.

S&P has broken a it's long term trendline and as long as we continue to see higher highs and higher lows as well as above the 50/100/200 ma. Friday's low of 965 will be a key level to hold for the bulls. If we do see move down I will be using it as a buying opportunity, we have support levels at 950 and 930 level.

Nasdaq, which has been leading the market, is coming up to resistance at 50% retracement at 1530 as well as previous price support and a long term trendline. This doesn't mean to go short but I will take back my long exposure and watch how the market acts around that level and if there is signs of weekness and we see pattern of LH and LL then I will short the market.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Weekend Review (07/13-17/09)

S&P looking bullish as we are trading above levels of support around 930 and above the main ma's but for a confirmed uptrend we need to see the 10 above the 20 above 30 and so forth. We are also approaching resistance levels in the 950 area and I'm expecting a move back down to the decending trendline of the channel we broke out of or a 50% retracement to 906. Unless we break our most recent lows of 868 I will be adding long postions on a any retracements.

If we do make a move down to the trendline or 50% reracement and make a move back up we would be forming and inverse h/s pattern. Way too early to trade it but just something to looking out for.

Nasdaq looking much more bullish as it broken into new highs and extended it's gains trading well above its ma's. A move down to the trendline it broke out of I will use as a buying opportunity or a 50% retracement down to 1460.

Looking at the larger picture we can see that there is very little stading in the way of this market making a move higher.

Portfolio update

Positions Added:
Long:
- WIT, broke into new highs, major MA pointing up
- UNG, broke out after creating base and made a move above resistace at 13
- AES, consistent pattern of HH and HL

Short:
FFIV, up to major resistance in the 36 area, long term h/s pattern

Thursday, July 16, 2009

07/16/09 Market Recap

The stock market continued its rally today, after surging yesterday as a result of a strong forecast from Intel. The Dow rose 95.61, or 1.11%, to 8,711.82. The Nasdaq gained 22.13, or 0.9%, to 1,885.03, while the S&P 500 added 8.06, or 0.86%, to 940.74. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about a 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE, where volume was a bit lighter than it was yesterday.